The national championship is set, with No. 7 Notre Dame squaring off against No. 8 Ohio State in Atlanta. This historic clash features two resilient programs that have battled through adversity to reach the pinnacle of college football. Let’s dive into the key matchups and storylines that will define this showdown, and who has the edge to hoist the trophy.

Notre Dame’s Path to Redemption

After a crushing Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois, many dismissed Notre Dame’s playoff chances. Yet, under Marcus Freeman’s leadership, the Fighting Irish rebounded with 13 straight wins, securing their first national championship appearance since 2012. With a title drought spanning 36 years, Notre Dame is hungry for glory.

Ohio State’s Road to Redemption

Ohio State entered the season as a favorite, boasting one of the most talented rosters in the country. Despite setbacks against Oregon and arch-rival Michigan, the Buckeyes surged through the playoffs, defeating Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas with an average 20-point margin. Now, they’re back in the national championship for the first time since 2020, aiming for their first title since 2014.

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Notre Dame’s Passing Game vs. Ohio State’s Defense

Can Notre Dame’s offensive line protect Riley Leonard against Ohio State’s formidable pass rush? Leonard’s success hinges on his ability to remain clean in the pocket, as his performance under pressure significantly dips. Ohio State, with a low blitz rate but a high pressure rate, will rely on edge rushers Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau to disrupt Leonard’s rhythm.

Stat to Watch:

Riley Leonard’s Passing Grades

Kept Clean: 86.3 (T-37th)

Under Pressure: 36.2 (125th)

Notre Dame will also look to exploit Ohio State’s vulnerability on the sidelines, targeting cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun. Receiver Jaden Greathouse could be pivotal in stretching the Buckeyes’ defense.

2. Ohio State’s Run Defense vs. Notre Dame’s Ground Game

Notre Dame’s rushing attack faces its toughest challenge against Ohio State’s elite run defense, which boasts the highest run defense grade in the country. The Buckeyes have stifled opponents all season, and their ability to contain Notre Dame’s ground game will be crucial.

Stat to Watch:

Ohio State’s Run Defense Grade: 95.1 (1st in FBS)

Notre Dame must overcome its recent struggles in the run game, especially with the loss of starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp. Their success hinges on breaking through Ohio State’s stout front.

3. Ohio State’s Passing Game vs. Notre Dame’s Coverage

Notre Dame excels in man coverage, leading the nation in interceptions and forced incompletions. However, Ohio State thrives against man coverage, with quarterback Will Howard and receiver Jeremiah Smith among the best in exploiting one-on-one matchups. The Buckeyes’ versatile receiving corps, featuring Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate, will test Notre Dame’s secondary.

Stat to Watch:

Notre Dame Man Coverage Grades:

Coverage Grade: 93.5 (1st)

Passer Rating Allowed: 55.6 (2nd)

4. Ohio State’s Run Game vs. Notre Dame’s Run Defense

Ohio State has shifted to a gap-heavy run scheme, which has been effective despite injuries on the offensive line. Notre Dame’s run defense has been susceptible to gap runs, and their ability to adapt will be crucial. If Notre Dame can force Ohio State to become one-dimensional, it could open opportunities to drop more defenders into coverage.

Stat to Watch:

Notre Dame’s Defense Against Gap Runs: 5.0 yards per attempt allowed

Predictions

Max: Ohio State 28, Notre Dame 17

The Buckeyes’ balanced attack and dominant defense will be too much for Notre Dame. Expect Ohio State to control the game, limiting Notre Dame’s rushing success and capitalizing on big plays through the air.

Dalton: Ohio State 31, Notre Dame 17

Ohio State’s firepower and defensive prowess give them the edge. Notre Dame’s best chance lies in forcing turnovers and excelling in coverage, but the Buckeyes’ talent and momentum should carry them to victory.

Conclusion

As these two storied programs clash for the national championship, the battle will come down to execution in key matchups. Can Notre Dame’s offensive line withstand Ohio State’s pass rush? Will the Buckeyes’ defense stifle the Fighting Irish’s ground game? All will be revealed as the inaugural 12-team playoff concludes with a thrilling showdown in Atlanta.