When the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams, many pointed to 6-seed Penn State as a prime example of a program that would benefit from the broader field. The Nittany Lions have validated that prediction in spectacular fashion, winning two games to advance to the semifinals in this inaugural season of the expanded playoff.
For a team long burdened with the reputation of not being able to “win the big one,” Penn State has rewritten its narrative with a series of impressive victories. Now, they are just two wins away from claiming their first national title since 1986. Despite being labeled an underdog among the remaining four teams, Penn State is anything but outmatched, considering the strength of the competition.
Here’s why Penn State has a realistic chance to secure the championship:
1. A Dominant Defense
One of the key factors in Penn State’s success has been its formidable defense, led by standout defensive end Abdul Carter. Despite a late-game injury in the Fiesta Bowl, Carter is expected to return for the Orange Bowl, which is crucial for the Nittany Lions. His presence spells trouble for Notre Dame, their next opponent.
Carter leads a defense that ranks ninth nationally in points allowed per possession (1.41). With 21.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks, Carter is a disruptive force, but he’s supported by a talented cast including Dani Dennis-Sutton, Zane Durant, Kobe King, and Amin Vanover. This group has propelled Penn State to ninth in havoc rate (19.6%) and 10th in negative play rate (37.9%), consistently stifling opponents before plays can develop.
2. An Explosive Offense
Penn State’s offense has been quietly potent, ranking sixth nationally in explosive play rate (15.6%). Quarterback Drew Allar, tight end Tyler Warren, and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki have engineered a dynamic attack that excels in both the passing and running games. The team’s explosive pass rate of 20% ties them with Ohio State for tenth nationally, while running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen have delivered game-changing performances, particularly in the second half.
Singleton and Allen’s ability to wear down defenses was on full display in the Fiesta Bowl, where Singleton’s 58-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter sealed the victory. This versatility makes Penn State’s offense a consistent threat.
3. Red Zone Efficiency
Success in the red zone is often the difference between winning and losing in high-stakes games, and Penn State excels in this area. Offensively, they rank 17th nationally, with 37.58% of their possessions reaching the red zone, converting those opportunities into 4.84 points per trip. Defensively, they allow just 3.24 points per red zone trip, second only to Ohio State.
This red zone efficiency has been instrumental in Penn State’s playoff run and will be a key factor in their upcoming semifinal matchup.
Conclusion
Penn State’s journey to the semifinals showcases the benefits of the expanded College Football Playoff format, allowing a team like the Nittany Lions to prove their mettle on a national stage. With a hell-raising defense, explosive offense, and red zone prowess, Penn State is poised to challenge for the title, defying the odds and silencing doubters along the way.
